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A new study by doctoral student A. Michael Ierardi and Associate Professor Brian Pavilonis highlights the growing threat of extreme heat to New York City’s workforce, identifying which occupations face the greatest risk of heat stress as climate change drives up temperatures and the frequency of heat waves.
The researchers merged data from the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to develop a detailed risk model. Their analysis found that more than 178,000 workers in the NYC metropolitan region are employed in the top 25 occupations most vulnerable to heat stress. Landscaping and groundskeeping workers (over 51,000) and construction laborers (over 46,000) make up more than half of this high-risk group.
The study comes as projections show NYC could experience five to nine heat waves annually by the 2050s, up from just two per year between 1981 and 2010. Heat-related deaths are also expected to rise sharply, with estimates ranging from 150 to over 1,500 per year by mid-century.
The authors emphasize that effective heat mitigation policies—such as the proposed Temperature Extreme Mitigation Program (TEMP) Act—will require robust enforcement and targeted outreach, especially to vulnerable populations like workers with limited English proficiency or those in hard-to-reach sectors.
The research provides a foundation for policymakers to better protect at-risk workers as New York City faces a hotter future, the authors say.
