Strengthening pandemic preparedness and response through integrated modeling.

In response to the growing threat of emerging pandemic-prone pathogens, the World Health Organization (WHO), the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the World Bank have issued a new guidance document, “Strengthening pandemic preparedness and response through integrated modeling.” Professor Bruce Y. Lee, founding executive director of both the Center for Advanced Technology and Communication in Health (CATCH) and Public Health Informatics Computational and Operations Research (PHICOR), served on the technical advisory group and played a substantial role in the writing of the guidance document.

By combining epidemiological, macroeconomic and behavioral factors in a shared analytical framework, integrated models help to capture the diverse factors shaping policies and their long-term impacts. These include transmission dynamics and human susceptibility to severe disease, but also socioeconomic vulnerabilities and behavioral drivers.

“Mathematical and computational modeling does have tremendous potential for helping decision-making regarding pandemic preparedness and response.,” says Lee. “After all, it’s transformed other fields such as meteorology, manufacturing, and space travel. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw only the surface of the potential for modeling being scratched. This new guide from the World Health Organization (WHO) can help countries around better leverage the use of such modeling.

Producing and using integrated models to inform policymaking under time and resource pressures is complex. Disciplinary silos, limited data availability and inadequate platforms for collaboration between policymakers and modelers pose significant challenges.

“One continuing problem during the pandemic has been separate epidemiological and economic models due to such disciplines remaining historically separate and siloed,” observes Lee. “In actuality, problems are not just epidemiological or just economic but really combine and balance aspects of the two. In other words, when it comes to pandemics, policies and interventions have to be oriented towards a proper balance of reducing the spread and impact of the virus with minimizing additional types of harm to society. Integrated economic and epidemiological modeling can help better understand the trade-offs involved.”