System Dynamics Modeling to Evaluate Evidence-Based Practices for Reducing Opioid Morbidity and Mortality in New York

The Department of Health Policy and Management invites you to the next HPAM Research Headline Series presentation featuring CUNY SPH Associate Professor Dr. Nasim Sabounchi.

Sabounchi’s team built a comprehensive opioid system dynamics model that captures in detail: exposure to opioids, drug supply and overdose risk, community awareness of opioid overdose risk, naloxone supply and use, and treatment for opioid use disorder (OUD).

They calibrated the model to time series data (e.g., overdose deaths, Medication for Opioid Use Disorder (MOUD), naloxone distribution) for 16 counties participating in the New York HEALing Communities Study. Sabounchi and her team simulated overdose and fatality rates, OUD prevalence, and related measures from 2012 to 2032 and tested policy scenarios for reducing future overdose deaths.

The model helped county coalition members understand short- and long-term capacity-building needs and trade-offs in choosing the optimal mix of harm reduction, treatment, and prevention strategies.

Registration is required for this event. Please RSVP to receive the Zoom link.

If you have any questions, please contact alicia.smith@sph.cuny.edu.